Following our previous article and as we reach the third quarter of 2025, the questions remain: did the warning of an imminent exodus of millionaires from the UK materialise, and do we now have the data to support it? Most working in the wealth advisory sector appear to think it did, and many commentators agree. But the more revealing story lies not just in the number that have left (however high this is, in fact), but in the sentiment behind the decision to leave.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the reasons why individuals have chosen to leave the UK – or indeed have decided not to come here – go far beyond tax. What appears to be playing out is not merely a short-term reaction, but a broader re-evaluation of whether the UK still feels like a stable and welcoming home for international wealth. As Walter Wriston once observed, “capital goes where it is welcome and stays where it is well treated.”
Whilst parts of the discussion remain anecdotal, the emerging data is difficult to ignore. The 2025 Henley Private Wealth Migration Report forecasts that 16,500 millionaires will leave the UK this year – more than from any other country (Henley & Partners, 2025). Although some commentators have dismissed this as a proportionally small shift, many see it as part of a more sustained pattern of decline, with the UK experiencing almost a decade of net outflows and signs that this trend is accelerating (CNBC, 2025).
Some caution against scaremongering about migration forecasts. The Tax Justice Network has previously argued that predictions of mass millionaire departures often fail to materialise in practice (Tax Justice Network, 2025). Yet at this moment, it does feel qualitatively different. The sentiment amongst many high-net-worth individuals is that the rules have not simply changed, but rather that the whole tone towards them and wealth more generally has shifted. For these, the message is not just financial; it is cultural and affects how welcome they feel in the UK.
This sense of being poorly treated is felt most acutely about changes in the inheritance tax rules. One wealthy family recently put this concern very plainly when they stated that they are willing to pay tax on the wealth they have generated as UK residents, but find it deeply unfair that wealth built up by their parents and grandparents – entirely outside the UK – should now fall within the UK tax net simply by virtue of their residence here (The Guardian, July 2025). That is, in effect, sweeping historical capital into the UK tax net, and it is this that is perceived as neither proportionate nor fair. When this happens, capital does not just feel unwelcome; it also feels badly treated.
This feeling is compounded when other jurisdictions take a diametrically opposite approach and, by doing so, reap the rewards. The UAE, for example, is expected to attract more than 9,000 millionaires this year. Similarly, Singapore, Australia and parts of southern Europe are also seeing strong inflows (MoneyWeek, 2025). These are not only regarded as tax-friendly environments, but also ones that increasingly offer the combination of stability, lifestyle, and long-term opportunity that mobile wealth holders are seeking.
So, is the UK now at risk of a longer lasting erosion of its attractiveness to global capital? It is still too early to give a definitive answer to such a far-reaching question; after all, the UK retains its deep institutional advantages—legal clarity, high-quality education, cultural capital cities – but sentiment matters. When business owners and family offices start to plan for alternative homes, such decisions are rarely reversed quickly. They are signals of deeper uncertainty.
Ultimately, it may not matter whether the UK is less welcoming and safe or simply perceived that way. In the eyes of the wealthy that live here, as well as wealth creators that would historically consider moving here and global investors more generally, perception and reality tend to converge. This is especially so if the fiscal advantages that may help counterbalance such negative perceptions are removed.
If the UK wishes to remain a destination of choice for capital, it requires restored confidence, consistency in approach, and a renewed sense that those who choose to retain or bring their capital to the UK are indeed welcome and encouraged to flourish. The timing of this sentiment could hardly be more prescient, as it is now reported that the Chancellor is actively exploring the possibility of introducing a wealth tax. If implemented, such a measure would merely serve to confirm the fears of those still sitting on the fence – and push out many of those who have, until now, chosen to stay.
