At the beginning of 2022, it was tempting to think of energy policy in multi-year terms, bearing in mind the scale of the challenge inherent in de-carbonisation. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, however, has neatly underscored the challenges of making longer-term predictions in what has become an increasingly volatile global environment.
The core assumptions underlying the predictions set out in this note remain unchanged at a fundamental level. However, we can already see that the invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical instability that it has caused is going to drive a shorter-term reemphasis here in the UK (and within the West more generally) on energy security. We believe
this re-emphasis is likely to cause Western governments to seek carbon intensive quick fixes, as they look to ensure stability of supply through the current crisis.
Recent events have underscored the need for greater energy independence here in the UK and, in the medium term, may act as a catalyst for a strengthening consensus around that drive, which in the medium to long term, here in the UK at least is likely to come through more investment in renewable sources.
That said, with energy policy to a certain extent already taking a back seat to the Covid pandemic over the last couple of years and now with the likely focus on short term energy security there is a significant risk that timeframes for mitigating climate change and achieving net zero targets may need to be reassessed.
Our paper looks in more detail at:
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